——新闻周刊：台湾能再起来吗？

　　——台湾面板业有机会再跃进

最新一期美国新闻周刊（Newsweek）特别报导台湾液晶面板产业，这篇题为“台湾能再起来吗？”的文章指出，台湾面板产业整合不足，国际竞争力处于相对弱势，不过台湾厂商仍有机会。

 

报导说，今年台湾面板五虎的出货量首度超越韩国，取得全球第一的市占率，不过在品牌知名度却不如韩国。当韩国三星（Samsung）和乐金（LG ）成为世界级的消费电子品牌时，面板五虎却没有响亮的国际品牌。液晶面板业产值预估2010年时可达1000亿美元，台湾业者能否继续保持领先地位则不无疑问。

 

在高门槛的面板产业中，韩国显然具有优势，因为每座面板厂造价超过20亿美元，使规模较小的台湾业者面临沉重的筹资压力，不过台湾业者仍然杀出一条自己的路。

 

台湾业者在1990年代末期进入这块市场时，充分利用晶圆代工累积的技术优势，并利用政府的租税优惠和研发协助，逐渐站稳脚步。去年面板产业的资本投资高达130亿美元，台湾业者就占了40%，超过韩国的37%，凸显台湾业者对投资毫不手软 。

 

不过抢下市占率的台湾业者，获利能力不如韩国。韩国业者在毛利较高的大尺寸面板称霸，靠着经济规模的优势压低成本。友达去年赚进50亿美元，远不及三星液晶部门的82.5亿美元，何美玥因而呼吁台湾厂商不要为了抢市占率，却输掉获利。

 

面板五虎的龙头友达即是靠合并的方式，来达到韩国财团的规模。友达董事长李焜耀说：“唯有大者能生存。”李焜耀认为友达在扩大规模的同时，仍须保有灵活应变能力，他不认为一定要走在尖端技术的前锋，因为这会消耗钜额的成本，“前锋”往往也是“流血刀锋”。

 

研究面板产业的芝加哥伊利诺大学企管教授穆塔（Tom Murtha）说：“韩国业者承受许多产业风险。”友达的技术能力一度落后韩国业者两年，如今差距已缩小到六个月，而这“一步之遥”正是友达亟欲保有的战略位置。

 

友达全球市占率为14%，排名台湾第二的奇美为11%，两者都远不及韩国乐金飞利浦的23.5%和三星的20%。美国市调业者DisplaySearch驻台北分析师大卫．谢说：“台湾厂商在接单上较为灵活，但这个产业的基本特性仍是经济规模。”

 

台湾一些小型企业仍然能利用专精优势在利基市场生存下去，像是应用在随身DVD播放机的小型面板。不过面板五虎正面临代工业者经历过的教训：小动物最后只会成为别人的早餐，这是全球竞争的丛林法则。台湾代工业者例鸿海和英华达，早已熟知残酷现实，所以积极并购小公司而得以主宰市场。

 

穆塔表示，友达模式值得同业参考， 关于台湾液晶面板厂商会惨遭淘汰的说法已流传多年，但“他们仍好好地活在那儿”，台湾厂商只是要开始努力增进获利。（经济日报）

附文：

Can Taiwan Come Back?（台湾能再起来吗？）

 

Overshadowed by big brands from South Korea, the island's small, unsung firms look for a new model.

Courtesy of AUO An AUO flat-screen plan 

 

These are troubling times for Taiwan, which for decades has held the lead over South Korea as Asia's second richest nation after Japan. In international markets, the two nations were once commonly mentioned as a pair, but now South Korea occupies a spotlight of its own. The Seoul stock market is rising, lifted by foreign investors, as the Taipei market falls. Once the leading foreign investor in China, where it has obvious advantages of proximity and cultural affinity, Taiwan has been surpassed there, too, by South Korea, at least in the official numbers. (Much of the investment from Taiwan goes through back channels, to avoid Taipei's campaign to prevent overdependence on the mainland.) For the first time last year, South Korea's nominal per capita income ($14,150) passed Taiwan's ($13,450).

 

The Korean model has clear advantages in the LCD-screen industry, too. Production takes place in hulking factories that cost $2 billion or more, a steep price tag for smaller Taiwan firms that have trouble raising that kind of capital. Yet Taiwan has found ways to get in the game.

 

Taiwanese companies, which entered the business only in the late 1990s, have drawn on local expertise in the chip industry, which uses a process similar to etching features on a glass panel for an LCD screen. The Taiwanese economy is dominated by contract manufacturers, which make goods like flat-panel TVs for big brands, and are major customers for such screens. Budding manufacturers received an early boost from government tax breaks, research support and help in securing factory space. By last year, the five Taiwanese firms accounted for 40 percent of the industry's whopping $13 billion spending spree on new plants and equipment, compared with South Korea's 37 percent.

 

That set the stage for Taiwan's emergence as unit-sales leader this year. But despite the strong showing, the South Koreans are still making more money. Korea dominates the most profitable, large-size screens and can keep costs lower through economies of scale. Taiwanese company AUO earned a respectable $5 billion last year, but that lags far behind the $8.25 billion produced by Samsung's LCD business. The profit problem has the Taiwan government virtually tearing its hair out: earlier this year, Minister of Economic Affairs Ho Mei-yueh urged flat-panel makers to avoid "dominating the world market but making no money."

 

AUO's strategy is to marry the agility and independence of Taiwanese firms with a size approaching that of a Korean chaebol. "Only the large companies can survive," says AUO chairman K. Y. Lee. "We've got to be a tiger to be sustainable. But that doesn't mean we'll be slow; we'll still be flexible, fast-moving and active." AUO, the biggest Taiwanese LCD maker by revenue, bulked up to its current size with the 2001 merger of two smaller firms that made different size screens, giving it the scale to ride out market downturns.

 

Lee thinks he's found a sweet spot—not too big and not too fast. "It's not necessary for us to become the first mover in the industry," says Lee. The cutting edge is sometimes known as the "bleeding edge," because of the cost and risk of developing new technology, and the need to burn through glass as new manufacturing techniques are perfected. "The Koreans are absorbing a lot of the technological uncertainty," says Tom Murtha, a professor of management at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and co-author of a book on the flat-panel industry. AUO was once about two years behind the Koreans in LCD technology and has closed that gap to about six months, which is right where it wants to be.

 

Taiwan  has been urging the industry to consolidate for years, but so far the only major merger is the one that created AUO. Its global market share reached 14 percent in the second quarter, ahead of Taiwanese compatriot Chi Mei at 11 percent, but still well behind LG. Philips's 23.5 percent and Samsung's 20 percent, according to the U.S.-based market research firm DisplaySearch. How much longer the other Taiwan firms can stay competitive remains to be seen. Taiwan and South Korea are "neck and neck," says David Hsieh, an analyst with DisplaySearch in Taipei. "Taiwanese makers are more flexible in terms of getting orders, but the basic feature of the industry is still economic scale."

 

The implications of that contest go beyond the flat-panel sector. Analysts say some small Taiwanese firms can survive by specializing in niche markets, such as displays for portable DVD players. But Taiwan's flat-screen makers are learning the same painful lesson as its contract chip- and gadget makers: in the jungle of global competition, smaller animals end up as breakfast. Giant electronics manufacturers like Hon Hai and Inventec have bought up smaller component companies and now dominate the contract business. AUO's evolving model—moderate scale and near-cutting-edge technology—may provide a survival plan for Taiwan's flat-screen makers, whose demise analysts have been predicting for years. "But they're still there, and they're succeeding," says Murtha. Now, they just need to start turning a bigger profit. （NEWSWEEK)